With the Government already planning its exit strategy for the restrictions, it’s time to look ahead and see what the road to normalcy will look like. What will it be like to live in what the Government is dubbing a ‘COVIDSafe’ economy?
Whilst a feeling of relief is present as things begin the journey back to normal, an undercurrent of fear and uncertainty remains. More than a third of respondents to a survey by The Economist said it will be several months until it is safe to reopen businesses. This indicates that even though businesses may be open, attendance and spending may stay low. This environment of consumer reticence is generally being referred to as a ‘90% economy’.
The term ‘90% economy’ originates in the United States, where it is estimated that 10% of occupations are impossible to conduct while social distancing measures remain in place. With restaurants, bars, clubs, gyms, and similar close-proximity businesses out of commission, the country is left to hobble along with only 90% of the economy functioning.
While seemingly inevitable, it’s unclear whether or not Australia will experience a protracted 90% economy after the easing of restrictions is unclear. The laidback ‘she’ll be right’ attitude that Australians are internationally renowned for may come into play. Or perhaps we’ll see what is happening in China, where discretionary spending is down by 40% even as restrictions have eased.
While we all can’t wait for the coronavirus to be a distant memory, the reality is that we’ll be managing the repercussions of this pandemic for some time to come. That’s why as investors, it’s vital to adopt a long-term mindset, taking into account the changes to the status quo, and making decisions that will set ourselves up for prosperity in a post-COVID future.