One of the most Googled questions since the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak is: how will this coronavirus affect house prices?
Governments are running hundreds of scenarios on a daily basis. Facts are: a novel virus is conquering the world rapidly. There is uncertainty. There is fear. There is panic. All that combined is usually not a good sign for local and global economies.
We have seen this translating in share markets across the world with massive sell offs and the belonging plunge, to then jump up again the next day due to bargain hunters, who know that one day the shares will be back up again, to then crash again and repeat. Traditionally, the share market has been a lot more volatile and its not surprising that we are experiencing what we are experiencing today.
The property market, however, is a lot less volatile as you’re not just selling a property with the click of a button online and instantly. So usually it takes more time for the ripple effect to reach the property market.
So in my opinion the question is: How big are the ripples and how long will they take to reach the property market? Should the coronavirus be contained, cured or should it not impose such a danger anymore and people start looking ahead again before the ripples reach the property market, we may be spared a property crash and this is not unlikely if we unpack this:
Currently, auction rates are still up, people are still looking to get into the market. By the time that market confidence drops, demand will drop a little but don’t be fooled, supply will drop too, preventing house values to drop much
From the agents I speak to, they are prepared for what’s coming. Through enforced innovation, where nearly the whole of society will basically live online, property inspections will be done through Virtual Reality, or virtual walkthrough. Even auctions will be done online, keeping demand up. Has there even been a house sale through an online only auction and if not, who will be the first person to do this?
My prediction is that despite the share market crash and the panic we see at the moment, despite the lost jobs and quarantine we will all face, the property market will not drop by much as the ripple effect won’t reach the property market in full force before the coronavirus situation starts looking rosy again.