Earlier this year, predictions of the property market crashing 40% made headlines across the nation, prompted by a ‘worst possible scenario’ experiment by a bank thinktank which made its way into the hands of journalists.

Unsurprisingly, those predictions have been significantly revised in light of recent data. The worst-case scenario did not happen—in fact, the property market has actually held relatively steady.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia is now expecting that the property price trough will be 6% lower than peak prices, and this trough will occur in the first quarter of 2021.

Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics at CBA said that most of Australia’s property markets are performing above expectations.

“The reality is prices haven’t been falling as much as we thought they would. In fact, they’ve held up very, very well in some parts of the countries.” Mr Aird said.