When will restrictions ease? That’s the big question at the moment and the professionals are divided.

On one side, we see a large group of academics that caution an early easing as they are weary of a potential bad trade off between public health and the economic aspects of the crisis. On the other end we see a collection of economists, political and business leaders that have pleaded with the Prime Minister and National Cabinet for a measured scaling-back of the current lockdown by May. They are of the opinion that the policy of containment is also having adverse social, health and other human impacts on the approximately three million Australians who are tragically unemployed, underemployed or preparing their businesses for bankruptcy. They feel that if this goes on for too long, it may cause a once in 100 year depression with a much greater negative health consequences for society at large than the virus itself.

As is commonly the case, the reality probably lies somewhere in the middle. To me, both arguments are convincing and any decision will not be taken lightly by our National Cabinet. I am all for a careful easing of restrictions, sooner rather than later, however let’s not underestimate the danger and repercussions of a second wave. Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews confirmed this a bit earlier this week, mentioning Victoria will not just follow other states in easing restrictions, just because there is frustration. We must remain careful and have regulations in place that minimize the risk of that second wave and having to shut down again, which will be worse than the current one.